Analysis of Civil Violence and its Impact on the Population in Europe-Central Asia
First, for a more general analysis, the focus is on the geographical distribution of
civil unrest in Europe and Central Asia.
The following heatmap highlights the 15 countries with the highest number of
total events recorded during the period analyzed (2017-2025).
In that period, is possible to observe that Russia and Ukraine have a particularly
high concentration of activities, with an increase starting in 2022.
This highlights the significant effects on the civilian population of the raging conflict between Ukraine and Russia. To understand better the phenomena, a deeper analysis is performed on the two countries.
Comparison of events between Ukraine and Russia
To analyze the internal and external tensions, we examine the cumulative frequencies of events (Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, Protests, Riots and Violence against civilians) recorded in Russia and Ukraine since 2017.
As shown by the data, is evident that Ukraine has experienced a significantly higher number of battles and explosions/remote violence compared to Russia. This highlights the asymmetrical nature of the ukranian-russian conflict, with first experiencing more civilian-targeted violence in the form of bomings and battles on its soil. Meanwhile, Russia has seen a higher incidence of protests and riots, indicating internal dissent possibly related to the war effort and its consequences.
Moreover, an analysis was conducted to understand the distribution of protests types in Russia and Ukraine. The following waffle chart illustrates the incidence of the three categories: "Peaceful protest", "Protest with intervention" and "Excessive force against protesters".
The chart allows us to visually compare the incidence of peaceful protests with those that required
intervention by the police (moderate or with excessive force), highlighting the different dynamics
of public order management in the two countries.
Specifically, protests involving a state response are recorded at a significantly higher rate in Russia.
In total, 19% of protests in Russia faced interventionin, in sharp contrast to Ukraine, where state responses
occurred in 4% of protests. Excessive force is used in 1% of protests in Ukraine, whereas its value in Russia is less
than 1%.
However, the peaceful protests are the predominant category in both nations, comprising 81% of the total protests in Russia
and 96% in Ukraine.
Analysis focused within Ukrainian borders
After comparing the two countries, the final phase of the analysis focuses exclusively on the internal evolution of events in Ukraine. The barchart illustrates the temporal trend of the total number of events that occurred in the country, which shows a substantial increase starting in 2022, almost tripling the total number of events from the previous year and consequently highlighting the occurrence of a crucial phenomenon.
Subsequently, we seek to understand in greater depth and detail the increase in events that have occurred in the country over the years. The visualization reveals a dramatic shift. Prior to 2022, "Protests" accounted for the majority of events. Since that year, however, their incidence has droped, coinciding with a significant increase in battles, explosions, and remote violence that now overshadows previous protests. The 2022 peak in the "Violence against civilians" category is also significant, highlighting the armed conflict's heavy impact on the civilian population.
Taken all these insights together, they mark the beginning of the large-scale armed conflict. The data illustrates a clear transition point in 2022, moving from a state of political instability, primarily defined by protests, to an armed conflict, dominated by battles and remote violence.
Analysis of Population Exposure During the Conflict in Ukraine
Since Battles and Explosions are the majority of events in the years of the conflict, an analysis was conducted to understand the level of population exposed to these two main events.
The provided boxplot offers a direct comparison of this aspect, allowing to observe how remote explosions put civilians at greater risk and highlighting the cruel aspect of modern warfare, which is mostly composed of remote explosions rather than field battles. It is observable how the maximum exposed population reached by a remote explosion event is double that reached by a battle-type event and how typically explosions involve a larger number of civilians than what is observed for battles.
Given the relevance of remote explosions, the analysis will subsequently focus on the impact of different specific types of remote explosions and on the deaths caused by this type of event. In particular, the Violin Plot attempts to analyze the distribution of the 3 most frequent attacks of this type: air/drone strike, artillery/missile attack, and landmine.
For the y-axis, a Log Scale was used to obtain a better visualization, since the data cover a wide range of values. From the plot it is possible to observe how Air/drone strikes and artillery/missiles tend to involve a large number of people, also having a higher number of events. This is easily readable by looking at the shapes of the different violin plots; they are very similar in terms of Air/drone strike and Artillery/Missile attack, while quite different for landmines. Furthermore, it is observable how Air/Drone strikes and Artillery/Missile attacks are the two main attacks directed at bigger cities that involve a large population, up to 1 million.
The following graph represents the cruelty of the conflict, showing the number of civilian deaths in Ukraine caused by "Remote Explosions" events alone. However, it is important to observe from the histogram how many attacks of this type, fortunately, cause zero or very few deaths (less than 20). Nevertheless, unfortunately, we must consider the tail of the graph, which represents less frequent but catastrophic events (more than 100 fatalities).
As shown in the follow graph, it is possible to observe the evolution of the use of the three main types of attacks on Ukrainian territory before and during the war. All attack types show a sharp increase in 2022, corresponding to the beginning of the conflict.
Specifically, Shelling/artillery/missile attacks were the predominant tactic, reaching peaks of almost 1.000 events per week. However, their frequency showed a gradual and steady decline over time. At the same time, air/drone attacks increased steadily, culminating in 2024 in the strategic overtaking of artillery, thus becoming the main offensive method used. Attacks using remote explosives/mines/IEDs constitute the third tactic; although they remain at significantly lower levels than the other two, their impact remains significant in the context of a protracted conflict.
Throught the following gradient intensity of attacks graph we'll try to understand the extent of the conflict:
Taking a look, we can observe that the western regions of Ukraine appear to be the safest areas of the country: they show very few explosions, as indicated by the light colors on the map, and their distance from the front line helps explain this lower level of activity. Moving toward the eastern part of the country, close to the Russian border, the number of attacks increases significantly. The highest concentration is found in the southern part of the Donbas, specifically in the Donetska region, and more generally across all border regions. More specifically, in the north-east, the Sumy region records the highest frequency of attacks, while in the south-east, the Kherson region is among the most heavily affected.
Looking in detail at the explosions that occurred, we can say that on the border between Russia and Ukraine the majority of attacks are carried out using shelling, artillery, or missiles. This is reasonable, as the proximity between the two countries allows the attacker to rely on shorter-range weapon systems. Moving toward the deeper regions of the country, we observe that the most prevalent type of attack becomes air or drone strikes, which is explainable considering the greater distance from the front line. This trend is also visible in the north-western regions, where the proportion of remote explosives, landmines, or IEDs is comparatively higher, but air or drone strikes still remain the dominant category due to the increased distance from the conflict border.
But looking the distribution of fatalities we can get that:
Coherently with the previous graph, the highest number of fatalities on Ukrainian soil is concentrated in the same regions that experienced the most intense explosions, such as Donbas (Donetska) and Khersonska. In contrast with the western regions, where both explosions and fatalities remain very low, we observe that the relationship between the number of explosions and the number of fatalities is not always proportional. For example, in Sumska, the frequency of explosions was high but the number of fatalities remains comparatively lower. Conversely, regions such as Kharkivska, Zaporizka, and especially Luhanska, in the northern part of Donbas, record a high number of fatalities even when the intensity of explosions is not the highest compared to other heavily bombed areas.
The following graph analyzes the composition and distribution of disorder events across the ten main European countries, namely France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Greece, Ukraine, Russia, and other EU countries.
As shown in the figure, the distribution of disorder events varies significantly depending on the geographical area in which they occur. Within the European Union, the predominant type of disorder event is represented by protests. In particular, France and Italy together account for approximately 31% of the total number of events. Moreover, France also ranks first in terms of riot events, indicating a relatively higher incidence of more confrontational forms of civil unrest compared to other EU countries. Countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, Spain, Sweden, and Greece mainly contribute to àprotest-related events, with a negligible presence of violent or war-related categories. This highlights a clear distinction between Western European countries, where disorder events are largely non-violent and driven by social or political mobilization, and Eastern European regions affected by armed conflict. Considering war-related events, such as battles and explosions or remote violence, these are almost exclusively concentrated in Russia and Ukraine. This pattern reflects the ongoing armed conflict in this area, which dominates the distribution of violent events. Other categories, including violence against civilians and strategic developments, play a comparatively minor role across most countries and are primarily associated with the conflict zone.
To better understand the distribution of disorder events occurring in Ukraine during the conflict and to identify the regions most heavily affected, we refer to the following graph.
To better understand the distribution of disorder events occurring in Ukraine during the conflict and to identify the regions most heavily affected, we refer to the following graph. The events can be ranked by frequency as follows: explosions or remote violence, battles, strategic developments, protests, and riots. As clearly shown, explosions and remote violence represent the dominant category, followed by battle-related events, highlighting the high intensity of the armed conflict. Regarding the geographical distribution, the regions most heavily targeted are those located along or near the Russian border and the eastern and southeastern parts of the country. In particular, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Zaporizhzhia exhibit the highest concentration of violent events. These areas are characterized by sustained military activity and frequent attacks, reflecting their strategic relevance within the conflict. Other regions show a significantly lower number of events and are mainly associated with non-violent categories, such as protests or strategic developments, confirming the strong spatial concentration of hostilities in specific areas of Ukraine.