Conflict and Human Suffering

Results of the investigation into the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its consequences

In this report, we provide a comprehensive overview of the unrest and conflict events that occurred in the Eurasian region between 2017 and 2026. This analysis leverages data provided by ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project), an independent organization dedicated to monitoring and collecting data on conflicts and protests worldwide.

Typically, when consuming news about global conflicts, it is difficult to fully grasp their true magnitude, as such comprehension requires a significant effort of imagination. For this reason, we have produced an in-depth analysis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, examining the nature of the hostilities, the evolution of modern warfare modalities, and the broader economic and geopolitical impacts on Europe and the global community.

The following chart provides a general overview of the distribution of civilian unrest and conflict in Eurasia

Data regarding the 2017–2026 period highlights a significant shift in the geographical focus of instability. In the initial phase (2017–2019), the Eurasian landscape was defined primarily by the localized conflict in Eastern Ukraine (Donbas) and political unrest within Russia. However, starting from 2020, the trend of civil disorder moved decisively towards Western Europe.

France emerges as the country with the highest frequency of civil unrest, recording approximately 40,000 events. A detailed breakdown of the event types reveals a distinct geographical dichotomy:

• protests: peaceful demonstrations are widespread across the entire territory, with particularly high intensity observed along the Western coast (Brittany/Nouvelle-Aquitaine) and in the Southern regions.
• riots: conversely, violent riots are far more localized, showing a sharp concentration in the Île-de-France (Paris) region and major urban hubs like Lyon, while remaining less frequent in rural areas.

Italy ranks second with over 26000 recorded events. As visualized in the heatmap, these manifestations are clustered around major urban centers and the northern regions. Notably, the data indicates a marginally higher incidence of excessive force used against protesters in Italy (14 recorded instances) compared to its neighbors.

Germany and Spain follow in the rankings. Germany shows a widespread distribution of roughly 24000 events, while Spain (approx. 22000 events) displays a distinct pattern where unrest is concentrated in the capital, Madrid, and along the coastal regions.

Returning to the analysis of the Eurasian region, we can observe that Battles and Explosions have established themselves as the predominant forms of disorder. This trend offers a compelling explanation for the extremely low levels of civil unrest recorded in the same period: the high security risks inherent in a conflict zone make it virtually impossible for the population to organize or attend public protests.

Specifically, Ukraine has emerged as the absolute epicenter of this violence. The data reveals a staggering escalation in the number of battle events: in 2017, during the localized conflict in the east, only 37 events were recorded and by 2022, with the onset of the full-scale invasion, this number surged to over 7000.
By 2025, the scale of the conflict further intensified, reaching a peak of 22353 recorded events, nearly tripling the figures seen at the start of the invasion.
Consequently, we decided to visually analyze the temporal evolution of the Ukraine-Russia conflict up to 2024, highlighting the most significant phases and moments of the hostilities.

Consistent with the previous graph, the highest number of fatalities within Ukrainian territory is concentrated in regions that experienced the most intense conflict, such as Donetska and Khersonska. However, a comparison between battle-related and explosion-related events reveals distinct patterns.

While western regions show minimal activity in both categories, the relationship between explosions and total fatalities is not always proportional in the east. For instance, Sumska highlights this discrepancy:
while the data shows a significant impact from explosions, the overall victim count remains lower compared to the primary frontlines.

Conversely, regions such as Kharkivska, Zaporizka, and especially Luhanska record high fatality numbers driven largely by battles, even in areas where the intensity of explosions may not appear as the sole dominant factor compared to heavily shelled zones like Donbas.

Analyzing the conflict from a district-level perspective, we observe that explosions are significantly more widely distributed than battles, which remain heavily concentrated in districts along the borders and frontlines.

The Khersonskyi district emerges as the primary focal point of attacks, followed by Pokrovskyi. In contrast, explosions are recorded across nearly the entire Ukrainian territory, although their intensity remains highest in the regions closest to the border.

The municipal perspective allows for a granular assessment of how individual cities within key regions have been impacted by the conflict. Notably, the data highlights Kherson as the municipality recording the highest intensity of battles.

However, the view on explosions reveals a fundamentally different pattern. While battles are largely confined to municipalities near the border and frontlines, explosions are far more widespread. The data indicates that geographic distance from the border is not sufficient to ensure safety, as nearly every region across Ukraine contains at least one municipality that has been hit by explosions.

Subsequently having seen the conflict evolution from the previous graph, we seek to understand in greater depth and detail the increase in events that have occurred in the country over the years.

The Russian market's relationship with European countries has undergone a drastic transformation.

In the pre-war period (2021), the trade landscape was dominated by the exchange of Crude and Refined Petroleum, followed by Natural Gas and Metals. These exports were widely distributed across EU member states, generating a massive total trade volume of €132.5 billion with this subset of products alone.

In the 2023 war-time scenario, however, the situation changed radically. The primary export mix shifted, with Natural Gas taking a more prominent share relative to oil, which saw a significant reduction. Most notably, the overall volume of trade collapsed, plummeting to just €41.9 billion.

Turning our attention to Ukraine, we observe a moderate decrease in total trade volume, which fell from €19.2 billion in 2021 to €17.1 billion in 2023. Notably, Ukraine's 2023 trade volume represents less than half of Russia's volume (€41.9 billion) for the same period.

While the core trading partners have remained largely the same, their ranking has shifted significantly. This is largely due to the reduced availability of strategic raw materials, particularly Metals, which saw a sharp decline in exports. This shortage directly impacted Italy's position: formerly the leading trade partner in 2021 (largely driven by metal imports), Italy has fallen towards the bottom of the ranking in 2023.

Consequently, the conflict forced Ukraine to restructure its export economy. The country transitioned from a model heavily reliant on metals and minerals to an economy focused on agricultural commodities, specifically Cereals and Oil Seeds, which have become the dominant export categories in the war-time scenario.

To better illustrate the war's impact on the global economy, we analyzed the FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
This index, which monitors monthly fluctuations in the international prices of a basket of food commodities, allows for a comprehensive overview of price inflation and trends within the global agri-food market.

Examining the percentage differences, we immediately observe that European countries have effectively severed ties with Russia, with flight traffic dropping by nearly 100% across the board.

However, the market void left by Europe has been rapidly filled by other players. As shown in the data, the United Arab Emirates and Belarus have significantly increased their presence. Meanwhile, countries like Kazakhstan, Israel, and Turkey have reduced their absolute volume of flights but have not terminated relationships entirely.

In terms of absolute numbers, Germany shows the steepest decline, recording 1109 fewer flights compared to the previous year, followed by Italy with a reduction of 452 flights. The 'Other' category confirms this is a generalized global trend of disengagement.

The shift in market share is the most telling indicator of this geopolitical realignment. While Germany's share collapsed from 13.4% to 0.1% and Italy's from 5.5% to 0.1%, other nations absorbed this traffic:

• Turkey: market share surged from 10.7% to 28.5%.
• Belarus: increased from 5.0% to 27.0%.
• United Arab Emirates: jumped from 6.2% to 28.2%.

These figures vividly demonstrate how quickly geopolitical dynamics can reshape economic connectivity within a span of just 12 months.